If you’re fortunate, you might have encountered this scenario: a friend disappears into their basement, only to reemerge with a bottle of Bordeaux or Burgundy that’s been aging for decades. “Can you believe this bottle is worth four figures now? I got it for just a few euros!”

Stories like these make wine collecting seem like a lucrative venture—and it certainly can be. In 2018, for instance, bottles of Domaine de la Romanée-Conti fetched $558,000 at auction (over 17 times their original estimate), and a Domaine Leroy Musigny Grand Cru 2012 went for $233,000 at Sotheby’s.

That year, Sotheby’s wine and spirits auctions hit a record $100 million in sales, and by 2023, this figure soared to $159 million. Even Rudy Kurniawan, infamous for his counterfeit wines, managed to sell around $30 million worth of fake bottles over his career.

These kinds of high-stakes sales naturally make wine lovers wonder: Is it possible for anyone to achieve such profits? Do older bottles always translate to high payoffs? Below, sommeliers and collectors share their thoughts on the financial side of wine collecting.

Stepping into the World of Wine Collecting

“Wine collecting can definitely be profitable,” says Molly Austad, wine director at Bludorn, Navy Blue, and Bar Bludorn in Houston. “But it’s more complex than simply bottle price, storage costs, and time equals profit.”

“Life is simple, but not that simple,” adds Aldo Sohm, wine director at Le Bernardin and Aldo Sohm Wine Bar.

Yes, turning a profit in wine collecting is possible, but it comes with a big caveat. Profitability isn’t just about time and investment; factors like selection, provenance, storage, and market trends determine whether a wine will increase in value as it ages.

“You have to collect and sell the right wines to make money,” says Sohm. “Take commercial Pinot Grigio, for example. It’s unlikely to appreciate in value. But a rare Burgundy? That’s a different story.”

“Only a select few wines in the world truly gain value over time,” adds Matthew Hyland, chef and culinary partner at Zoé Tong, one of Bon Appetit’s most anticipated new openings.

Hyland points to wines with proven aging potential. “Big California Cabernets, like Harlan and Screaming Eagle, and cult wines like Bionic Frog and Sine Qua Non, consistently rise in value as they age,” he says. “Similarly, first growth Bordeaux, Grand Cru Burgundy, Brunellos, Super Tuscans, and Barolos from renowned producers continue to appreciate.”

However, new collectors can’t simply walk in and buy these top-tier wines. The best Bordeaux are often sold en primeur, while California’s most sought-after Cabs are released through mailing lists that can have waiting periods lasting decades. “Building relationships with suppliers is crucial,” says Sohm.

The Risks and Rewards of Collecting “Dusties”

“Collecting wine purely for profit is far too risky, in my opinion,” says Will Taylor, beverage director at La Compagnie Flatiron in New York. “Yes, you can make money from your collection, but it demands significant investment and a steep learning curve. You could also seek professional advice, but that will cut into your potential profits.”

The criteria for what makes a good investment wine have shifted over the past few decades. “Unfortunately, in the last ten years, and especially after the pandemic, wine has become more of a lifestyle product,” says Aldo Sohm.

He notes that market trends and consumer demand now drive prices up and down, particularly with cult wines like Screaming Eagle and Opus One, which have morphed into status symbols more than passion-driven collector items.

Price inflation has also caused Premiere Cru prices to soar, making it nearly impossible to secure allocations of highly coveted wines. More non-experts are realizing the potential financial upside of wine, turning it from a hedonistic passion into an investment asset.

“A lot of finance people have recognized that collecting wine can be lucrative and have started treating it like a serious investment,” Sohm adds. “This surge in demand has outpaced supply, driving prices even higher.”

The rise of tech platforms has further fueled the financialization of wine. Companies like VinoVest use sommeliers and algorithms to guide wine investments, while platforms like Rally allow people to buy equity shares in wine collections.

“Wine is a long-term commodity that improves with age, so its value naturally increases,” says Anthony Zhang, cofounder and CEO of VinoVest.

What’s the Real Return?

With wine collecting gaining traction as an investment strategy, how much profit can you realistically expect?

The answer might be less than you’d hope.

Jeff Gillis, founder of the Winelikes app, sells wine at auctions for extra income, but it’s not a big-money endeavor. For instance, he recently bought a 2019 Schrader Double Diamond Oakville Cabernet Sauvignon for $62 and sold it for $90, making a $28 profit. “The margins aren’t huge, but they can add up,” he notes.

Proper storage also comes with its own costs, time commitment, and effort. Matthew Hyland, who collects wine for personal enjoyment but occasionally sells bottles, explains, “With all the expenses tied to storage, shipping, and reselling, I’ll probably just break even when I sell my high-end collectibles.”

Former NFL player and venture consultant Pete Najarian is meticulous with his collection. He purchases from reputable sources, logs everything in CellarTracker, insures his wines, and keeps them in a temperature- and humidity-controlled home cellar.

Despite these precautions, success isn’t guaranteed. Najarian embraces the possibility of losses, drawn more by the joy of collecting than the potential financial rewards. “What a great fallback plan,” he jokes. “How many other investments leave us with something we can enjoy even if they don’t appreciate? Even a corked wine is less disappointing than some of the financial losses I’ve experienced.”

So, what’s the return on his wine investment?

It’s not straightforward. Najarian explains that a $150 bottle may appreciate to $300 in value, but after factoring in costs like insurance, storage, shipping, and taxes, selling it becomes less appealing. “Or, I could share an incredible $300 wine with friends and family for a special occasion, knowing I only paid half of that,” he says. “How do you measure a return on happiness?”

Despite the challenges, Najarian remains enthusiastic about wine collecting. “I enjoy investing in wine because it offers so many win-win scenarios,” he says.